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Last 10 Football Handicapping Picks
Here at NFL Choice, we adhere to the strict ideology of honesty when it comes to football handicapping. And that's why we have the highest return customer rate of 70% since we opened our doors back in 1996.
Below, you will find our last 10 football picks along with return investment based on our Wager Rating System. Additionally, you will find our analysis for each play listed directly below the graph.
LAST 10 FOOTBALL PICKS ( W = 8 ; L = 2 | + 2,155 UNITS )
DATE
OUR PICK
RESULT
UNITS
2/06/11
Packers -2.5
WIN
+ 800
2/06/11
Packers OVER
WIN
+ 200
1/23/11
Bears +3.5
LOSS
- 770
1/23/11
Bears Under
WIN
+ 200
1/15/11
Bears -10
WIN
+ 700
1/15/11
Jets +9.5
WIN
+ 300
1/15/11
Ravens +4
LOSS
- 825
1/15/11
Packers +1
WIN
+ 250
1/10/11
Auburn -1
WIN
+ 600
1/8/11
Ravens -3
WIN
+ 700
=================================================================================
ANALYSIS RECAP SECTION (LAST 10 PICKS BY MOST RECENT)
1/16/2011 Super Bowl Winner #15 in Row!
GREEN BAY MONEYLINE -140 (800 UNITS)
We're taking the Packers here on the moneyline for our 15th consecutive Super Bowl winner in a row. Forget about the spread, too much risk involved at that line. These teams mimic each other in so many respects that this literally could be a 1 point game. And why not? The last time these teams met last season, the Steelers edged a 1 point victory.
Look, there is a reason why Green Bay is favored here. The Steelers, with two recent Super Bowl rings and the better record this season, as underdogs to a team from the NFC? Doesn't make sense does it? Actually, makes perfect sense to us, and here are the reasons.
First, let's touch on the running game. With the Steelers starting center Maurice Pouncey out of this game, getting those lanes open on the inside will be VERY difficult against this Packers front. Did you know that the Packers are #2 in the league in sacks and #2 in the league against the run? Have you seen BJ Raji? The problem here is the Steelers are not a gimmicky offense. They pound you right up the middle with smash-mouth football led by RB bruiser Rashard Mendenhall. With no Pouncey, this style of downhill running might not be very effective. The Packers have surrendered only 166 yards on 46 carries in the playoffs (3.6 YPC), so Mendenhall won't be as effective this Sunday as he was in his last two home games.
The Packers don't need to run (traditionally) the football necessarily to have success against the Steelers. They run a very similar offense to the Patriots with short quick outside passes that can serve as the run. In fact, it opens the run up the middle. Those 3-6 yard out plays gets you down the field in a hurry and they open up other opportunities once the safeties committ. Did you see the Patriots - Steelers game earlier this season? Wasn't even close as Tom Brady shredded them with dinks and dunks! Aaron Rodgers has the quickest, most accurate release of possibly any QB in the NFL right now, and he plays behind a mammoth offensive line that has protected him pretty well this season. Additionally, Rodgers has the abilty to get out of the pocket and make plays with his feet, something neither Flacco nor Sanchez were capable of doing against this Steelers front. Green Bay also has an emerging RB in James Starks who has made a name for himself in the playoffs. Put him alongside of Jackson and Kuhn, and we certainly believe the Packers have the better running game between these teams on Sunday.
Secondly, we will focus on the QB's in this game. Aaron Rodgers is better statistically, FACT! He has more accuracy, more weapons, and a quicker release than Ben. It's also a known fact that Ben Roethlisberger is a winner and gets the job done, especially in the Super Bowl. A grinder, tough, hard nosed player. However, let's take a deeper look at those two rings. In the 2006 season, the Steelers defeated Seattle in the SB despite getting pummeled in the numbers. Big Ben threw for 123 yards; 2 picks; 0 TD's. Compared to Hasselbeck passing for 273 yards; 1 TD; 1 pick. Anyone watching that game understands the frustration of two Seattle TD's being called back for ghost penalties that weren't even reasonable. The Seahawks amassed 70 yards in penalties that day to a mere 20 yards in penalties for the Steelers. However, what's most eye opening is that two of those penalties came on TD plays. Fixed? Who knows? One thing we do know, the Steelers have a legacy, the Seahawks don't!
Fast forward to the 2008 season with the Steelers and Cardinals playing for the marbles. Once again, Big Ben gets out-shined in the box score department with Warner passing for 377 yards; 3 TD's; 1 pick. Compare to a humble performance from Big Ben with 256 yards; 1 TD; 1 INT. What was the penalty distribution you ask? Arizona racked up a whopping 106 yards in penalties while the Steelers got busted for just 56 yards. Needless to say, anytime a team bursts the 100 yard mark in penalties, the winning percentage goes down the toilet. Big Ben needed a miraculous final drive to setup a go ahead TD in the final seconds. Note, he won't have Santonio Holmes in his pocket this game.
The fact is this time around, the Steelers won't have the benefit of hacked officiating. This is the Green Bay Packers people, not the upstart Cardinals or Seahawks. No disrespect to either of those teams, but Green Bay's legacy is not one to mess with in this game in the national spotlight. Besides, Green Bay was tied at #3 this season in the penalties department with just 4.8 per game. Compare that to the Steelers who sit at #23 with 6.3 penalties per game. People, we tell you this now, the Steelers will not get those terrible calls on Sunday, no bailouts this time around!
Finally, Steelers backers make a big fuss about the "Steel Curtain" and how it's the best defense in the league. Do you know who Dom Capers is? Did you know he practically designed the Steelers defensive playbook? Did you know he coached alongside old Dickie LeBeau at the Steelers for years? Did you know both teams run the same 3/4 defense? Did you know the Packers are #2 in scoring defense behind the Steelers this season with just a .05 distribution? Go ahead, keep making assumptions, but we base our picks on facts! The Steelers great defensive stats this year were helped along by some luck and strength of competition. They really only faced two elite quarterbacks this season (Drew Brees and Tom Brady). In their other 16 games, they faced teams that were average or below average in passing (not one ranked better than 13 in passing). Against the two elite passing teams, Pitt gave up an average of 29.5 points per game!
BOTTOM LINE: Forget the stats, forget the hype. This boils down to two very capable teams taking the field and playing for the marbles. The Packers have the better QB; a quality defense; and quality coaching on the sidelines that are are very familiar with the Steelers playbooks. We know these teams and we know the NFL. That's why we are gunning for our 15th, count em 15 consecutive Super Bowl winners in a row! We like Green Bay to win a close one over a Steelers team that has had some fortunate breaks to get to this game. Take the Pack moneyline and don't look back!
Super Bowl XLV Total PACKERS / STEELERS OVER 45 (200 UNITS)
1/23/2011 CHICAGO BEARS +4 (700 UNITS) This line is a solid 3.5 across the board so let's buy the 1/2 point and protect our investment. No need to get beat by the hook this late in the season. Our key number is +4 and will be graded as such.
FLAT OUT BIGGEST GAME IN THE HISTORY OF SOLDIER FIELD!
That's what the town of Chicago and this Bears team considers this game right here today. It's for a trip to the Super Bowl and the hurdle is against their most hated rival. Best of all, it's on the home field. And, though the Packers have won each playoff game on the road, they have lost three of their last four trips to Chicago. Additionally, the Packers were just 3-5 on the road during the regular season. No reason whay they should be laying the points in this contest, no reason whatsoever!
So we're not going to waste your time by giving you a 2 page write-up on why we like the Bears today. We will simply give you the 3 reasons:
1) Running Game: The team that wins this game is going to have to run the football. Shots out to rookie James Starks for running strong against Atlanta and Philly, but going on the road and doing it against this Bears defense is a much taller task. This is a Chicago defense that yielded the second-fewest yards on the ground (90.1 ypg) over the course of the regular season. Linebackers Brian Urlacher (125 tackles, 4 sacks, 1 INT) and Lance Briggs (89 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 INT) each received Pro Bowl honors as the team's top two stoppers, while havoc-wreaking end Julius Peppers (54 tackles, 8 sacks, 2 INT) has also been a force against the run in addition to maintaining his status as one of the game's premier pass rushers. The Packers didn't rush for more than 63 yards against them in either meeting this season. Do you honestly believe the Bears will let a rookie shred them today in possibly the biggest game in Soldier Field history?
Chicago won seven of its final nine regular-season contests, and that second- half surge coincided with a renewed commitment to a running game that had been a non-factor in the early going. The Bears continued to move the ball effectively on the ground in their playoff opener, with the backfield duo of Matt Forte (1069 rushing yards, 51 receptions, 9 total TD) and Chester Taylor (267 rushing yards, 3 TD, 20 receptions) teaming up for 124 yards on 36 carries against the Seahawks and a judicious Cutler (3274 passing yards, 23 TD, 16 INT) adding 43 more and two scores on eight scrambles.
2) Special Teams: Look, the team that can lessen the length of the field and make their field goals is going to give their team the edge today. Why would you go against Chicago's special teams in this situation? Chicago owns a clear advantage is in the return game, where the dynamite Devin Hester topped the NFL with a 17.1 average taking back punts and scored three touchdowns, including a 62-yarder against the Packers in the Bears' Week 3 win. The spark-plug receiver also averaged a sizzling 35.6 yards while splitting kickoff duties with Danieal Manning (24.7 avg.), and a suspect Green Bay coverage unit that gave up a 102-yard kick-return score to Atlanta's Eric Weems a week ago would be wise to keep the ball out of Hester's hands. Chicago kicker Robbie Gould (25-of-30 on field goals) is a reliable veteran with an 85.5 career success rate on field goal attempts.
The remainder of Green Bay's special teams corps has been ordinary as well, with neither Nelson (21.6 avg.) and rookie nickel back Sam Shields (21.5 avg.) making a big impact on kick returns and Williams (8.4 avg.) doing a steady job on punts. Rookie punter Tim Masthay averaged nearly 44 yards per kick and put 25 attempts inside the opponent's 20-yard line in a solid debut, but kicker Mason Crosby (22-of-28 on field goals) has made just 78.1 percent of his career three-point tries and can be an adventure.
3) Home Field Advantage: It's the NFC Championship; the winner goes to the Super Bowl; it's at Soldier field; these are heated divisional rivals that meet twice a year, every year. Why would you bet against the home team getting points in this situation?
Our Bottom Line: Aaron Rodgers is the better QB than Jay Cutler hands down, so we agree with the betting public on this fact. But, we have seen Cutler manage this offense effectively the last half of the season and he has helped earn the Bears home field advantage in this game. It's not all about the QB position when looking at this matchup. We look for a smash mouth game here with special teams and the running game being the difference once this game gets into the second half. That being said, Chicago owns the clear advantage in both of these areas.
Each of the past five meetings between these rivals overall have been decided by seven points or less so your looking at a rubber match here this afternoon. The overreaction by public opinion to the Packers recent run has the visitors billed as the favorite in this game. However, our numbers actually have the Bears at a 2-3 point favorite when factoring in home field advantage, momentum, and strength against strength.
This one goes to the wire, so let's take the points.
BEARS / PACKERS UNDER 42.5 (200 UNITS)
1/16/2011 CHICAGO BEARS -10 (700 UNITS)
Seattle just won their game of the year last week at home against New Orleans. We had an idea the team would play like it and Pete Carroll typically has a solid game-plan at home. That's why we gave you in confidence both first half and the game winner on Seattle last week. However, this week, going on the road to face Chicago is a much different story.
First, Seattle has lost all seven of its road playoff games since winning its first one, 27-20 over Miami on Dec. 31, 1983. That's a long time without a road playoff victory. With that said, the Seahawks have been absolutely terrible on the road this season managing to win just 2 out of 8 games losing those games by double digit margins. And Chicago won't be any easier today, considering the Seahawks are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games against a team with a winning home record. Additionally, the temperature will barely make it out of the teens today in Chicago and there will be wind of Lake Michigan to deal with for Seattle. Not the environment they are used to playing up in Washington State.
A lot of bettors and other handicappers point to the win over Chicago earlier this season as a benchmark for this game. However, we contest the Bears are a much different team this time around. Visiting the Bears in Week 6, Seattle was coming off a bye week but had been blown out in its only two previous road games. Using a pattern of blitz schemes which helped lead to six sacks of Jay Cutler, the Seahawks beat Chicago 23-20. Seattle didn't commit a turnover against a Bears defense which finished tied for third in the NFL with 35 takeaways. For Chicago, the loss was the second during a 1-3 stretch as it struggled to find offensive rhythm. The Bears went 0 for 12 on third down and ran only 14 times — two on scrambles by Cutler — for 61 yards. Matt Forte and Chester Taylor combined for 12 carries and 42 yards. Cutler completed only 17 of 39 passes for 290 yards - 67 on one completion to Johnny Knox.
What's important to take from that circumstance is that Chicago followed that defeat with a loss to Washington before having its bye week, then went on to win five straight and seven of eight to win the NFC North and a secure a first-round bye. The Bears that the Seahawks will get today will be a much, much better team than they saw on the field back in week 6. Additionally, you throw in the revenge factor and it will be amplified. The Bears remember that game and you can bet they are using it as locker room material pre-game.
So you ask what has changed since that game? Well, the Bears' pass-oriented attack took a more balanced approach over the final nine games, with 258 rushing attempts and 276 passes. The Martz scheme has been in place and utilized correctly. The Bears rushed for more than 100 yards only twice in their first seven games, but they eclipsed that mark in eight of their last nine. Forte averaged 119.7 yards from scrimmage and 5.8 per carry over the final six. Smith said a lot has changed since Week 6 and, much like the Seattle did before the last meeting, Chicago is taking full advantage of its week off to prepare for the same team that beat them in their house earlier in the season.
Our Bottom Line: Seattle did well as they beat out St. Louis at home by surprise for the NFC West title, and they went on to defeat the Saints in the first round of the playoffs. Much props to Pete Carroll for getting his troops pumped for those games. But, let's be realistic here, the Seahawks have proven time and time again that they play much differently on the home field. The crowd noise is deafening in Seattle and it's one of the toughest venues in the NFL to play at for visiting teams. Rookie Sam Bradford had no chance at winning on the road at Seattle as his road record was also questionable this season with the Rams. And, the Saints were simply wore down from the season with surmounting injuries by the time their plane landed in Seattle. Not tom mention they are a dome team playing in the elements. It was purely circumstantial and the Seahawks took advantage. This will be a different story today as the Bears are playing their best football of the season and are extremely anxious to meet their nemesis Green Bay in the NFC championship.
We expect the Bears to absolutely destroy the Seahawks today at Soldier. Lay the wood.
NY JETS +10 (300 UNITS)
This line is currently +9 to +9.5 at most shops, but is starting to move to +10 at some places like Bodog and several brick & mortar sportsbooks in Las Vegas. If you wait this line out, you may see a solid +10 by game-time at most books. However, being this is a lower unit selection, please do not buy any points. We will grade the line where it closes 30 minutes prior to kickoff.
1/15/2011 BALTIMORE RAVENS +4 (750 UNITS) Line Note: Please buy the hook here to bring this up to +4. Our key number here is +4 so shop for best value and buy the hook.
We like Baltimore's experience coming into this game to be the difference. The Ravens have 17 players who are 30 or older, which represents almost one-third of their roster. They have a mix of playoff experience and have been in the playoffs, the divisional rounds, the AFC Championship, and even the Superbowl including the leader of the defense in Ray Lewis. He actually has been showing the ring to his team in pre-game discussions in an attempt to build a sense of purpose in these games. With that said, these Ravens have been derailed in the playoffs by the Steelers too many times. Today is about redemption for younger players like Joe Flacco, Ray Rice, and Ngata, who don't have the rings. Additionally, this is also about redemption for one of the best coaches in the league in John Harbaugh. It's time to get the monkey off the back in Baltimore and it starts this afternoon.
The Ravens are battle tested and ready to play in this game coming off a blowout win over Kansas City last weekend, a team the "experts" had pegged as "dangerous". Playoff teams coming off a road win in Round 1 are 7-2 ATS in the divisional round since 2005. Not a fluke either, these teams are playing with urgency and momentum. Being this is the third matchup of the season with Pittsburgh, we expect Harbaugh to have his team over prepared here.
There is snow everywhere in Pittsburgh and it will be snowing more come game-time. That being said, this is a typical environment for both teams this time of the season. And, the team that can make plays on offense and keep from turning the ball over will be the difference. In the Ravens' three road playoff losses — two against the Steelers — they lost the turnover battle decisively, by three giveaways each time. In the championship game loss after the 2008 season, Joe Flacco threw three interceptions, was sacked three times and had a passer rating of 18.2.
Flacco has come a long way since then and Ray Rice hasn't fumbled the ball all year, so the Ravens have proven overall they can manage the football. This season, the Ravens' had a franchise-low 20 turnovers. One of those turnovers however, was a game losing fumble for Joe Flacco back in week 13 against Pittsburgh that ultimately decided where this game is being played right here. We believe Flacco takes that disappointment and turns it into a positive today on the field to prove all doubters he is a legitimate NFL QB.
Bottom line, these teams always play a close hard nosed football game, as evidenced by the last 8 games being decided by 3, 3, 3, 3, 9, 4, 3 and 6 points. The fact that the Steelers have derailed the Ravens Super Bowl dreams the last several years gives proper locker room motivation for Harbaugh to serve pregame. We simply believe when the game is on the line, Flacco is going to make a play that sets up the go ahead win. You give him time, and guys like Todd Heap and Anquon Boldin are going to burn that Steelers secondary at some point in this game. It's not as if these players don't have BIG game experience!
Getting these points is invaluable in a game that will be decided in the final quarter. Look for a day of redemption for Harbaugh and this coaching staff of Baltimore. Take the points.
GREEN BAY PACKERS +1 (250 UNITS)
No write-up for this play.
1/10/2011 BCS NATIONAL TITLE RELEASE
AUBURN TIGERS -1 (600 UNITS)
This matchup is about as close for a National Title game that we have seen in a while. We won't bore you with statistics as both teams match up pretty evenly across the board. That being said, we will get to the core of our selection on this game and end with that.
Running Game: Auburn's running game is going to dominate this match-up. While many are pegging this game as all about Oregon's speedy offense, we counter that by saying it's all about Auburn's HUGE physical o-line and their ability to run the football.
First, we have none other than Cam Newton for the Ducks to worry about. Newton carried the rock as the Tigers’ main ball carrier 242 times for 1238 yards and 20 touchdowns. However, lost in the Cam Newton dominance are three capable runners. With the attention diverted to Newton all night, one of these three runners is going to make a huge difference. This greatly benefits Auburn, because Oregon will not know who it will come from. Freshman Michael Dyer has picked up 950 yards and five touchdowns on 160 carries and averages 5.9 yards per carry. Sophomore Onterio McCalebb and Senior Mario Fannin truly make the most of their limited touches. McCalebb ran for 763 and nine touchdowns on just 89 carries, averaging an amazing 8.1 yards per carry. Fannin recorded 395 yards and five touchdowns on 61 carries, averaging 6.2 yards per carry. These “other three” rushers for Auburn totaled 14 touchdowns on 2040 yards on 310 carries for an average of 6.5 yards per carry.
Now, Oregon ranks #16 in rushing defense in the nation and has stopped the run very well this season. However, this Auburn running game will be the most ferocious and beastly they have seen all season. When you look at the strength and physicality of SEC teams compared to any other conference, it's quite easy to see where the advantage lies. Auburn's offensive line is bigger and stronger than the speedy Ducks, as well as their running trio will be much larger in size than the undersized Oregon Ducks tacklers.
There is a reason the SEC dominates the title game every season. There is a reason why the Auburn Tigers are undefeated in the toughest conference in college football. There is a reason why Auburn has faced a total of 9 bowl bound opponents this season and won them all.
We look for the Tigers running game to be the difference tonight, and at a near pick em you can't pass up the Tigers at this low price. Tigers roll.
1/09/2011 BALTIMORE -2.5 (700 UNITS) Line Note: Please buy the hook here to bring this down to -2.5.
This play comes down to experience. You have possibly the toughest defense in the
NFL with playoff experience facing an offense that has much to prove. Jim Harbaugh is 3-2 all time in playoff road games and last year pulled off a brilliant game-plan to beat New England on the road in the wild card round. We believe he steps to the table once again and shuts down this KC offense today.
Matt Cassell simply has not been the same since his appendectomy. You see a 2-1 record since the surgery, but he has tossed 4 TD's to 3 INT's during this time frame. The Ravens will put pressure on Matt Cassell that he hasn't seen this season and you can forget about the Chiefs running the football at this defense. The Ravens have allowed just 93 YPG on the ground and respectfully play in what we consider the best division in terms of rushing the football. AFC North teams are built to run the football and when these teams go outside of their division typically defend the run very well. We look at Baltimore's non-division games this season and we see a stellar 7-2 record with close losses to the league's best in Atlanta and New England by a combined 8 points. They did it by attacking the line of scrimmage against these teams, putting pressure on the QB, and stopping the run. It's a Jim Harbaugh thing and we hope you understand his defensive pedigree when it comes to coaching.
Now to the offensive side of the football. Which QB do you trust with your money today? Joe Flacco, who has 2 years of playoff experience under his belt including road wins at Miami, Tennessee, and New England? Or, door 2 with a shaky Matt Cassell who has no real playoff experience? This game should be close and will come down to the QB that can make the plays when the game is on the line. You look at both playoff games yesterday; Mark Sanchez making those plays at the end of the game to set up the go ahead field goal; Matt Hasselbeck having a stellar outing against an over hyped defense. We've seen Joe Flacco deliver all season and in the playoffs the last 2 years, so we're fully confident he will make those plays when his team needs him today.
We had this Ravens team pegged as a Super Bowl contender before the season started and we're not backing off our original assessment. Let's lay the points with Baltimore.
If you want to view more long term handicapping records, please head over to our Documented Handicapping Records page to view results. OR, if your looking for this season's handicapping records only, please check out this seasons Football Handicapping Records. As always, please let us know if you have any questions to support@nflchoice.com or 1-866-940-7425. We look forward to hearing from you.
