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Super Bowl XLIII Winner
Here We Go....
One thing you can't argue with is history. At NFL Choice we have a proven documented history of hitting the big games. The Super Bowl is the biggest game of the year, every year, period. Many clients and reporters ask us the key to hitting the Super Bowl every year. Do we have a system for hitting this gigantic play? How have we gone undefeated for 12 straight years in the Super Bowl?
To make everything simple, we mostly look at matchups. Or, how well does one team stack up against another. Can the underdog win outright? Can the favorite win big? The answers to all of these questions is YES! We have seen it time and time again, upset after upset. Blowout after blowout. What happened is last year's Super Bowl was no fluke, only a small wake in the already deep sea of upsets and astonishing victories.
One thing you must forget about handicapping the Super Bowl is the regular season, it does not matter! You must take what has happened in the playoffs to make any assumptions based on performance. The rest is looking at matchups and how well teams matchup with one another. Forget the regular season, just look at the matchup in front of you.
We have scoped this game over and over, time and time again. However, we keep coming back to the same conclusion. The QB that manages the game most effectively without turning the ball over will deliver his team a Super Bowl victory. Thus, when looking at this matchup head to head, our money is going with Kurt Warner and not Big Ben this time around.
First off, Warner has faced this defense last year and conquered them to the tune of 21-14 as the six point dog. Warner is playing as comfortable as we have ever seen him and is better right now than he ever was with the Rams. Experience will do that for a QB and thats one thing you must not take away from Warner is his experience in the big game atmosphere.
So, sit back and watch the Super Bowl with confidence knowing you are on the right side, win or lose. Kurt Warner is the right choice for the Super Bowl.
Arizona Cardinals +7
2 Unit Selection (2 * Your Normal Per Game Allocation)
When looking at this matchup, just like last year with the Giants selection, it's tough for us to see the Steelers blowing out the Cardinals in this game. If the Cardinals can manage to play without hurting themselves with costly turnovers, they will certainly give themselves a shot at winning this game outright.
Here is some quick and dirty numbers for you:
In their last 11 games, if the Arizona Cardinals have a turnover advantage, they are 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS. When they don't, try 1-7 SU and 1-6-1 ATS. When they met in week 4 last year @ Arizona, the Cardinals as 6 point home underdogs upset the Steelers 21-14 with each team turning it over twice.
In our expert opinion, if the Cardinals can stay even or win the turnover battle, they very well could win this game outright. This will be the key component of Super Bowl XLIII and we are confident with the Cardinals recent performance to go with the steady arm of Kurt Warner.
Key Intangibles
There are so many intangibles involved in this game it's hard to isolate the most important. However, one huge factor that must be considered is the Cardinals databank of knowledge on the Steelers organization. It all begins with coach Whisenhunt's knowledge of the Steel Curtain and everything this defense has to offer, which is a lot. Did you know Whisenhunt and defensive coordinator Dick LaBeau for the Steelers are best friends? Did you know they play golf quite often? Can you possibly imagine the game-plan talks they have on the course? Needless to say, Whisenhunt will have his team well prepared for the Steelers defense in this game.
You could make the argument that LaBeau also knows Whisenhunt, but a quick look and you will so immediately realize that Whisenhunt NEVER had the same type of offensive weapons at his disposal in Pittsburgh, PERIOD! Let it be known Whisenhunt also never had Todd Haley, the hottest offensive coordinator the playoffs have ever seen to put up 30 points in 3 straight playoff games. Coach Whisenhunt also has the upper hand in knowing Ben Roethlisberger and his tendencies very well, possibly even more than current head coach Tomlin. After the Steelers drafted Ben, it was Whisenhunt, then the offensive coordinator who taught Ben everything about the offense, molded him and along with that knows his every weakness as an NFL QB. Whisenhunt can certainly outsmart young Ben on any given Sunday.
Speaking of coaches, how about former offensive line coach Russ Grimm now assistant head coach for Arizona. How familiar is he with the defensive line and blitzing schemes of Lebeau his offensive line will see Sunday. Let it also be mentioned that this is an Arizona offensive line that has started all 19 games together this year, an unprecedented record for an NFL season.
Last but not least, count the six other Cardinal coaches who have ties to the Steelers. So much many folks are actually referring to Arizona as the "Steelers" of the west. Information like that is priceless in a game you have two weeks to prepare for in fact.
Sure, the Steelers have the best defense in the NFL hands down, however they have not faced an offense of the Cardinals caliber yet this season. Especially with the way the Cardinals are peaking on offense during this playoff run. Kurt Warner is playing the best football of his career. Just ask the Eagles' 3rd ranked defense in the NFL how hot the Cardinals are right now with Kurt Warner exploding in the first half then putting together a game winning drive in the 4th quarter to seal the win. Larry Fitzgerald is breaking every record possible and this could be a long day for the Steelers pass defense that has looked suspect this season.
Finally, the Cardinals defense has been very underrated to this point and like the offense, are playing their best all season, in fact possibly the best this franchise has ever seen. The Steelers offensive line has given up the most sacks in the NFL and the Cardinals are sure to get a few sacks on Sunday.
"Analysts" across the nation are predicting that the Steelers are just going to shut down this Arizona offense for 4 quarters. This simply will not happen on a neutral field with 2 weeks to prepare for this game, PERIOD.
Speaking of offense, how will the Steelers fare if they go down by more than a TD? Do you honestly think that hobbled Hines Ward will produce another savior type performance like he did in their last Super Bowl? This is an offense that has been stagnant all season. 10 points at Cleveland. 6 points at Philly. 14 at home to the Giants. 11 at home to the Chargers. 14 at Tennessee and 13 at home to Dallas, (the other 7 came on the pick 6). The Steelers offense has been the benefit of a defense that for the most part has handed them turnovers and great field position. Kurt Warner will manage the game better than Phillip Rivers and Joe Flacco did in the playoffs. It's different when playing on a neutral field or not in Pittsburgh, much different.
Key Ingredient = Arizona Running Game
Arizona is going to need a solid ground game to keep the Pittsburgh pass rush off of quarterback Kurt Warner. By running the ball effectively, it will open up the passing attack led by a quarterback that already has a Super Bowl MVP trophy on his resume. The Cardinals have won and covered all three of their playoff games this post-season behind an improving ground game.
James leads the post-season in rushing for 203 yards on 52 attempts (3.9 yards per carry average). The 30-year-old has averaged 17.3 carries during Arizona’s three playoff games, scoring one touchdown and recording 10 first downs. The reason that James has been so fresh during the stretch run has been the exploits of Hightower, a rookie out of the University of Richmond. The 22-year-old had 143 carries during the regular season for 399 yards (2.8 yards per carry) along with 10 touchdowns. Hightower has accumulated 132 yards rushing in three post-season games on 34 carries (3.9 yards per carry average) with one touchdown and seven first downs.
The Cardinals have been doing most of their damage on the ground with their outside speed. Arizona ranked dead last in the league during the regular season in rushing with 1,178 yards on 340 attempts (73.6 yards per game) with 14 touchdowns.
So, where does that leave us for Super Bowl XLIII? Can the Cardinals run against the #1 defense in the league? First off, they will certainly not be able to run as effective as they have the last 3 games. However, we project that the Cardinals will pass to open up the run if the Steelers stack the box to stop the run. If this happens, it will be a long day for the Steelers secondary who will be forced with the task of containing Larry Fitzgerald, Anquon Boldin, and Steve Breaston by playing single coverage or playing zone. The bottom line is, while the Cardinals will certainly not run wild on Sunday, the Steelers will most definitely need to respect the Cardinals suddenly resurgent running game. James and Hightower will be key components in getting this offense in the air. The Steelers will have to commit an extra body to stop the run and this will open up the pass for the Cardinals. The key here is Arizona has too many weapons for the Steelers to keep up with for the period of 4 quarters and something will give.
Our Bottom Line: Folks, the smart money here is getting the points, which is sitting pretty at +7 right now. We project this game to be decided by a field goal in what could be an over-time game. Of all the teams that the Steelers could have and maybe should have faced in the Super Bowl, this is the one team that they didn't want to see. The Cardinals know them very well on all fronts as mentioned above and are clicking at the right time. If this game were being played in Pittsburgh, we may be singing a different tune being they have one of the best home field advantages in the NFL with the elements on their side. Snow, win, and cold weather makes it tough on any team to perform and unfortunately for the Steelers, they will have zero weather advantage on Sunday. In fact, you can make the argument for the Cardinals who are by all means a warm weather club that is used to playing in extreme heat conditions. Sunny Tampa certainly welcomes the Cardinals this week in the big game!
Our Super Bowl ATS Winner #13 in a row tips our hats to the Cardinals who have every chance to win this game outright if (as mentioned above) they can manage the game without turnovers. Kurt Warner can absolutely seal his fate as a hall of fame QB in this game and we see no signs of a dud performance. Look for the Cardinals to keep this game tight right to the wire and possibly win outright. However, with the Steelers late game luck we do not recommend a money-line play.
So, take the points, sit back, and watch what looks to be a very competitive Super Bowl with more action than the Steelers though they would get!
Supporting Trends:
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
3-1 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points
6-3 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record
4-0 ATS Against AFC North Last 3 Seasons
Cardinals +7 ( 2 Units )
Other Non-Rated Prop Plays (Just for Fun - Will Not Count In Records)
1) National Anthem = OVER 1:59
2) What Color will the Gatorade be that is dumped on the Head Coach of the Winning Super Bowl Team? = Yellow (11-4 Odds)
3) Game MVP = Kurt Warner (+200)
4) Total Receiving Yards Hines Ward = UNDER 73 1/2
5) Pittsburgh First Score Of The Game = Any Other Score Than A TD (+160)
6) Will Either Team Score 3 Straight Times Unanswered = No (+160)
7) Largest Lead of the Game by Either Team = Under 14½ Points
8) Team to Score the Longest Touchdown = ARZ (+120)
